By Monica Tincopa

Can an understanding of the relationship between armed conflict and mass murder prevent future holocausts?

With at least six countries — the Sudan, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Algeria, and Afghanistan — considered at "very high risk" for genocide, it is especially urgent that we attempt to identify and then understand the motivating factors leading to genocidal movements and the activators allowing these atrocities to occur. Only then can we begin to create a means by which to prevent and intervene in genocide. Central to this task is the ongoing discussion of the interdependence and intricate interplay of warfare and genocide. At the crux of this debate are the notions of causality and temporal antecedence, i.e., the precise nature of their relationship. Is warfare a necessary precursor to genocide? Or does genocide in fact necessarily lead to warfare? Or is it perhaps the case that neither causal relationship necessarily exists?

Many attempts to resolve this debate and determine the genesis of genocide in relation to conflict have hinged on the identification of the underlying factors and forces driving genocide. Although in-depth studies of the motivations behind genocidal movements reveal certain common tensions, this information ultimately fails to explain the whys and wherefores of genocidal occurrences. Its fundamental theoretical failure is understandable given the psychosocial dynamics that mediate our actions and decision-making processes. To determine whether or not genocide (or indeed any action) will occur, it is necessary not only to establish a motive, but also to determine whether or not there exists an opportunity for this motive to be acted upon. While motivation does originate with a call for action, its existence is meaningless if the conditions making the action feasible are not met. Because context mandates when and to what extent a society can act, the situational context of a given society is the most important indicator of whether or not genocidal tendencies will be realized.

Mediating the extent to which context influences a given action is the extremeness of the situation. The more extreme the circumstances, the greater effect the situation will have on a course of action. With peaceful harmony and total war representing the two extremes of a society’s contextual spectrum, these situations can facilitate extreme actions that may be otherwise unfeasible. With respect to genocide, the presence of armed conflict plays an integral role in providing conditions conducive to mass killings. Warfare then acts as a powerful precipitating factor for genocide in large part through the impact of its subversive subculture. The overriding “Fog of War” and underlying "Culture of War" pervades society and puts in place the structural, logistical and psychological processes necessary for a population to act on its underlying tensions and commit genocide.